Universities in the UK have warned that they might not be able to find a place for every eligible student this autumn despite the lifting of caps on numbers to accommodate a major U-turn on A-level grading. Institutions were already facing major uncertainty about their student numbers after last-minute changes to the handling of school exam results led to the prospect of thousands of grades being overturned on appeal.

The publication of A-level results in England on August 13 brought confirmation that more than a quarter of a million results have been downgraded from teacher estimates as part of a standardisation process brought in to calculate grades after exams were cancelled because of the Coronavirus pandemic.

But after mounting pressure, Ofqual, England’s exam regulator, announced on August 17 that original teacher estimates would be accepted, a U-turn similar to that made in Scotland the week before. The Welsh government and the Northern Ireland executive also announced that teacher estimates will be accepted.

These U-turns have plunged the university admissions process into chaos. As of the morning of August 17, more than 190,000 18-year-olds had been accepted into their first-choice courses. But a further 85,000 had either accepted other places or were still deciding on their next move. These students might want to change their decision if the scrapping of standardisation leaves them with better grades.

Shortly after announcing the U-turn on grading, education secretary, Gavin Williamson, said a cap on university places introduced for English students this year would be scrapped as well. Mary Curnock Cook, the former chief of admissions body UCAS, had said that lifting the cap had to be priority “number one” after the U-turn, given that so many more students would now be eligible for a place in universities. But she added that the government also needs to understand that there is now a “massive heavy lifting” exercise for universities and UCAS because “substituting one set of results for another for around 300,000 students is a huge task”.

Even without a numbers cap, several people in the sector have warned that many universities might find it impossible to accept all students given physical constraints in some courses and accommodation considerations, especially as social distancing has to be maintained on campus.

Matthew Andrews, university secretary and registrar at the University of Gloucestershire, says it “will be the case” that some courses around the country won’t be able to take more applicants this year. “There are some courses that will simply be full and no matter how good-willed people are, you can’t just fit more people in,” he says.

Also read: United Kingdom — Endangered university bars