India will become the largest domestic higher education market by 2025, while China will remain the number one provider of international students globally, according to a British Council study. The study indicates that India will have the largest 18-22-year-old population in ten years — 119 million. The next biggest group will be in China, despite the projection that the number of Chinese in this age group will decline by roughly 35 million to 80 million. In 2012, China’s student population was 115,560,000, overtaking India’s by 71,000.

Nigeria will see the highest increase in youth population, projected at about 7.4 million, to reach 23 million in 2025. Other countries that will have much bigger student populations over the next decade include Indonesia (up 3.7 million) and Ethiopia (up 3.6 million).

The Shape of International Education to 2025 report predicts that the African youth population will equal, and then surpass the Asian youth population around 2078. The study is part of the British Council’s ‘Shape of Things to Come’ series presented at its annual Services for International Education Marketing conference in Edinburgh on December 10.

The report adds that the trend of the US and the UK facing decreases in their global market share of international students “looks set to continue” as provision of education in traditional origin countries expands. It suggests that Sri Lanka will see the highest annual percentage growth in household income over the next decade, 5.8 percent per annum, while strong average annual growth is also forecast for Vietnam (5.5 percent), Uzbekistan (5.3 percent), China (5.1 percent), Bangladesh (4.7 percent) and Indonesia (4.3 percent).

Based on figures of household wealth and population projections, as well as trends in tertiary education, the British Council predicts that China will continue to be the top supplier of international students globally in 2025, followed by India, Nigeria, Germany and Saudi Arabia, while India will be home to the largest domestic higher education market, followed by China and the US.

A separate report published by the UK Higher Education International Unit in early December reveals that a higher proportion of international students would recommend the UK than any of its major English-speaking competitors. Figures in the study, International Undergraduate Students: The UK’s Competitive Advantage, show that international undergraduate student satisfaction with UK higher education is at 91 percent, while 85 percent of international undergraduates would recommend or actively recommend their UK study experience.

The findings are based on feedback from 365,754 international students, which was collected from i-graduate’s International Student Barometer.

Successful higher ed model

England’s higher education spending increased in the first year of £9,000 tuition fees and its financing system allowed it to “raise spending in difficult times”, unlike European rivals. But the country has the most expensive public universities in the world. These developments are reported by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), whose annual Education at a Glance report includes data from England’s post-2012 system for the first time this year.

The UK is reported to have the fourth highest spend per student among OECD member nations, behind only Luxembourg, the US and Norway. The UK spent $24,338 (Rs.16.3 lakh) per student in 2012-13, compared with the OECD average of $15,028 (Rs.10.06 lakh), according to the organisation (figures that include spending on “core, ancillary services and R&D” and are converted into dollars using purchasing-power parity). In terms of average tuition fees at public institutions, the OECD puts England top ($9,000), ahead of the US (about $8,000).

Andreas Schleicher, OECD’s director for education and skills and a long-standing advocate of income-contingent loans in higher education, describes England as “one of the few countries that has been able to accommodate larger numbers of students without seeing spending per student decline”. He contrasts this with the higher education policies of major European nations where fees are much lower or non-existent, such as France, Italy and Germany. “The success of the UK in mobilising private resources, through… student financing, has allowed the system to raise spending in difficult times, which is not the case in many other countries,” says Schleicher.

The UK now spends 1.8 percent of its gross domestic product on higher education, up from 1.2 percent in the previous year. Public sources finance 57 percent of spending on higher education in the UK, below the OECD average of 70 percent.
According to Schleicher, “the steep rise in tuition fees that is for the first time reflected in our data in Education at a Glance hasn’t actually damaged participation (in the UK). In fact, participation still seems to grow… If I look at the data, I would think the UK — despite its heavy reliance on the private financing of higher education — has made a wise choice. It works for individuals, it works for government,” he adds.