The number of Nigerians studying in the UK is being forecast to increase tenfold in the next five years. The explosion in student numbers, up from just 2,800 last year to a potential 30,000 by 2015, is predicted in new research published by the British Council. Its calculations are based on a number of factors, including the poor quality of Nigerian universities and the rapid growth in the number of families that can afford to send a child overseas to study.According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, which conducted the research, Nigeria has seen massive expansion of its higher education sector. Whereas in 1960 the country had just one university, it now has more than 90, as well as 100 polytechnics and 150 technical colleges. But despite this growth, demand for university education far exceeds supply, with 1.2 million prospective students competing for just 148,000 places domestically. The expansion has also damaged quality, the report says, while students job prospects are poor, with graduate unemployment of about 60 percent.
With the quality of Nigerian degrees likely to remain sub-standard, students who can afford to study abroad will continue to do so. Alongside the problems facing its universities, the report highlights the growing wealth of the middle class in Nigeria, where the number of households earning more than $25,000 (Rs.12 lakh) per year is expected to increase fivefold by 2015.
As a result, the total number of international student enrollments will continue to rise, with Britain, which has historic links and a shared language, well placed to benefit. The report predicts that the UKs market share of Nigerian students studying overseas will increase from 51 percent last year, to 67 percent by 2015.
Pat Killingly, director of educational services at the British Council, says the Nigerian government is considering whether to allow transnational provision of higher education. If it is approved, she says, the UK will stand to benefit as one of a few high quality providers that would be allowed to operate in the country. There are absolutely enormous capacity-building needs within the Nigerian system, and because of the ties between Nigeria and the UK, Nigerians could be expected to look to the UK for that, and we need to respond, says Killingly.

(Excerpted and adapted from Times Higher Education)